If Baltimore loses in the early window, which absolutely should happen, the Bolts are locked into the No. 5 seed and have NO reason to play Justin Herbert or anyone else who makes above the league minimum. Plus due to rain in California, the team only had one full practice this week (they don't have an indoor facility?). I'm going to play this now as I assume it will rise if/when the Ravens lose.

The Chargers have every reason to deploy their starters. A defeat could drop them to a sixth seed in the AFC and send them to play Buffalo or Cincinnati in the first round. A victory secures a No. 5 seed, meaning a first-rounder at Jacksonville or Tennessee. The choice is obvious. Nobody is playing better than the "other" L.A. team, which has ridden a lights-out defensive to four consecutive straight-up wins. The Broncos showed some gumption after the firing of their coach with a narrow loss to Kansas City, but less than optimum focus for a four-win team in its finale is plausible.

Denver nearly upset the Chiefs in Kansas City after firing Nathaniel Hackett, but I'm not expecting another inspired performance in the home finale of a miserable season. The Chargers have won five of six as they chase the AFC's No. 5 seed. They have looked dominant lately as they've gotten healthier; Joey Bosa returned last week and played 24 snaps. This is an elite pass defense now, and Russell Wilson isn't likely to exploit it. With the Chargers allowing an average of 11 points during their four-game win streak, I'll lay the field goal at -120. THURSDAY UPDATE: The NFL announced Ravens-Bengals will be played at 1 p.m. ET, meaning LA could clinch the No. 5 seed before they kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET. The line moved drastically and I no longer love the Chargers because they might sit starters.