There might have been fluky elements that contributed to New York's 6-1 start before we saw some predictable regression. But the Commanders have received their share of breaks during a 6-1 stretch after starting 1-4. If these teams had met around Weeks 5-7, the Giants would have been at least -3 favorites. So let's take the implied value on the home underdog.

This will be the Commanders' 13th straight game without a week of rest. The Giants have extra time to prepare and get healthy after playing on Thanksgiving. Washington defeated the Giants twice last season. I love backing first-year head coaches (as underdogs) in double revenge division games. The Giants are ranked No. 5 in red-zone defense and No. 10 in opponent passer rating. Daniel Jones' QBR is 58.1, while Taylor Heinicke has a QBR of 46.9 this season. I like the home team plus the points.