It’s admittedly tough to back the Bills here when I know Josh Allen is going to throw a back-breaking red zone interception against this Patriots defense. Still, New England has mostly thrived beating up teams far worse than Buffalo. In fact, it does not have what most would consider a "good" win this season with its losses coming by an average of 10.6 points. That's not to say the Bills have been world-beaters as of late with a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five. But this screams like a spot where the Pats are getting the benefit of the doubt for being coached by Bill Belichick without consideration to their massive offensive issues or perspective for their defense. Expecting Mac Jones to keep up with Allen or create a backdoor cover scenario late is just not something I can buy into. I like this much better at -3.5 than -4, but it’s still a fair line. If you want to wait until after kickoff to try and get -3 live, even better. Either way, the Bills are the side here even without Von Miller.

New England is listing two starting offensive linemen in David Andrews and Trent Brown as questionable but they apparently both will play and that's my decider on taking the points against a Bills team missing Von Miller. The future Hall of Famer ranks third in the NFL in quarterback pressures (38). No other Bills player has more than 12 pressures, with Miller's 216 pressure gap the largest in the NFL this season. Miller leads the Bills in sacks (eight), pass rush win rate (23.7%) and pressure percentage (14.6%).

Money is flowing in against the Bills, who have not covered any of their last five games. But this number is too low considering Josh Allen's track record versus the Patriots and especially in New England (3-0-1 ATS). These teams haven't met since Buffalo destroyed the Pats 47-17 in last season's playoffs, a game in which the Bills did not punt. Allen is a tremendous runner and we've seen the Pats fail to contain Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. Allen (elbow) is practicing fully this week, something he hasn't done since the first week of November. While the Bills won't have Von Miller, they should get AJ Epenesa and Greg Rousseau back from ankle injuries. Lay the points.

Since playing the extreme weather game in Orchard Park last year, the Bills have totaled 910 yards of offense and 80 points against the Patriots in two meetings. And while the Patriots defense has performed well overall this year, it's gotten fat on several limited offenses while also giving up 30-plus points in three games. The Bills defense hasn't been as strong over the last month as it was earlier in the season and is now missing star pass rusher Von Miller, so it's possible the Patriots offense approaches the success it had last week when it carved up the Vikings. Despite the relatively low total, there's a decent chance this game gets into the 50s.

New England has the defense to slow Buffalo. The Patriots lead the league in defensive EPA per game (8.30) and also are one of the best defenses in the red zone. Opponents are scoring touchdowns on just 51.5% of red zone trips. Meanwhile Buffalo struggles in the red zone, scoring on just 76.7% of trips, which is the third worst in the league. My model says the Patriots cover 55% of the time, so you're getting value at this number.