ANALYSIS: It’s admittedly tough to back the Bills here when I know Josh Allen is going to throw a back-breaking red zone interception against this Patriots defense. Still, New England has mostly thrived beating up teams far worse than Buffalo. In fact, it does not have what most would consider a "good" win this season with its losses coming by an average of 10.6 points. That's not to say the Bills have been world-beaters as of late with a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five. But this screams like a spot where the Pats are getting the benefit of the doubt for being coached by Bill Belichick without consideration to their massive offensive issues or perspective for their defense. Expecting Mac Jones to keep up with Allen or create a backdoor cover scenario late is just not something I can buy into. I like this much better at -3.5 than -4, but it’s still a fair line. If you want to wait until after kickoff to try and get -3 live, even better. Either way, the Bills are the side here even without Von Miller.