loading...
Fri 12/02 | 1:15 AM UTC | Foxborough
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Buffalo Bills 14-3, 8-9 ATS
BUF -4-110
BUF -220
Over 44-110
New England Patriots 8-8, 7-8 ATS
NE +4-110
NE +180
Under 44-110

Expert Picks

NFL | Buffalo 24 @ New England 10 | 12/02 | 1:15 AM UTC

Buffalo -4

WIN

ANALYSIS: It’s admittedly tough to back the Bills here when I know Josh Allen is going to throw a back-breaking red zone interception against this Patriots defense. Still, New England has mostly thrived beating up teams far worse than Buffalo. In fact, it does not have what most would consider a "good" win this season with its losses coming by an average of 10.6 points. That's not to say the Bills have been world-beaters as of late with a 1-4 ATS mark in their last five. But this screams like a spot where the Pats are getting the benefit of the doubt for being coached by Bill Belichick without consideration to their massive offensive issues or perspective for their defense. Expecting Mac Jones to keep up with Allen or create a backdoor cover scenario late is just not something I can buy into. I like this much better at -3.5 than -4, but it’s still a fair line. If you want to wait until after kickoff to try and get -3 live, even better. Either way, the Bills are the side here even without Von Miller.

author-image

Adam Silverstein

Florida Favorite
+700 17-9-1 IN LAST 27 NFL PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 BUF ATS PICKS
+1030 18-7-1 IN LAST 26 NE ATS PICKS

Season Splits

14-3, 8-9 ATS
8-8, 7-8 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
46%
5-6
6-4-1
60%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
43%
3-4
3-2
60%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or PK
46%
5-6
2-3
40%
When Spread was -5 to -2
SPREAD
When Spread was +2 to +5
50%
2-2
1-3
25%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
43%
3-4
0-1
0%
vs Teams That Win 40-55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
0%
0-2
3-1-1
75%
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <21 PPG
0%
0-3
4-1-1
80%
After <=8 Days Off
REST
After <=8 Days Off
38%
3-5
5-3-1
62%
vs NE
HEAD TO HEAD
vs BUF
0%
0-0
0-0
0%