This number has seen some erratic movement, but there's value on Miami at the flat -3. Talent-wise, this matchup isn't even close and New England backers have the familiar refrain of "Bill Belichick is a genius" as about their only defensible argument. It's fair that he has a massive edge over head coaching newcomer Mike McDaniel, but it shouldn't be enough to overcome the talent deficit on the field.

I love what the Dolphins did this offseason, improving their offensive line, receivers, running backs and pass rush, and I think it shows up today vs. New England. Mike McDaniel is a brilliant offensive mind and can take advantage of a Patriots defense that no longer has a lockdown corner. With New England's offense looking uninspiring at best, back Miami to cover the field goal at -120.

The Miami Dolphins reloaded in all areas, on the field and on the sideline. Meeting new expectations at home can be a burden, especially against a division opponent. The Patriots don’t have the strong top-to-bottom roster that was the standard of past teams, but they have the coaching to get the edge when it matters most. They will keep it close enough that if the spread comes into play, you will be happy to have the full 3.5. Take New England.

The Dolphins lately have bedeviled Bill Belichick, winning three in a row outright. The master coach, who has never dropped four straight to a foe, was afforded the entire offseason to prepare. He went so far as to take the Patriots to south Florida on Tuesday to become heat-acclimated. The Pats have covered nearly two of every three games as an underdog under Belichick. Forget the personnel and matchups; it’s a stretch to envision him not covering against a rookie coach (Mike McDaniel) in the debut.

These teams are rated close to even by the market heading into the season, but I don't think they're even close. The Dolphins made some big additions on offense to help protect Tua Tagovailoa and give him an elite weapon to feature in the passing game. New coach Mike McDaniel should open up this offense and make things much easier on Tua, and the long-term ATS history of coaches in Week 1 is favorable for a Dolphins cover. The Patriots offense looks like a mess, with O-line issues and coaching questions to answer following the loss of Josh McDaniels. I hope you got this before the line move, but even at -3 this is probably my favorite play on the slate.

Obviously season-changing injuries can still happen during practice -- see Teddy Bridgewater a few years ago in Minnesota -- but now that Miami made it through the preseason unscathed, I'm ready to play this. Count me on the Tua bandwagon as I think he's going to blow up with the addition of Tyreek Hill and simply better offensive coaching. There's also the fact that Matt Patricia and/or Joe Judge will call offensive plays for New England, and I find that downright hilarious. Bill Belichick might be entering that Tony La Russa zone. I live in south Florida and it's going to be crazy hot and humid, and that's a huge advantage for the home side. Trust me, I can barely take out the garbage without fainting in summer months. I've gotta stop buying so many anvils!