The defending Super Bowl champions open the season against the AFC favorites, and if you were looking at the line only, you might believe the game was being played in Buffalo. Guess what? It’s not. Los Angeles is home, opening play as the reigning champions as a nearly field goal underdog despite most of its star talent returning. You’ve probably seen that the Rams are undefeated in Week 1 under Sean McVay, but they are also coming off a season in which they were 3-0 ATS as underdogs. And that’s not to mention the Super Bowl bump that reigning champions experience to start the next season. Josh Allen is about to have a great season, but he's not about to surprise this defense. This line should be flipped, and while most of us would probably wager on the Week 1 kickoff game anyway, there’s notable value here in the Rams.

The Bills may well end up representing the AFC in the Super Bowl and this is a great showcase opportunity for a loaded team. But recent history suggests this is a bad spot for the visiting team. The Rams have won five consecutive season openers under coach Sean McVay and the defending Super Bowl champion is 19-3 in Week 1 of the following season since 2000. There is value on the home underdog in the Kickoff Game.

We have a terrific matchup to open up the NFL season as the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills. I expect the Bills to be the aggressive team and showcase that they are rightfully the team to beat this season. The variable of a small spread can always be tricky considering likely lapses due to early-season rust. Take the money line in case the Bills win by a point or two.

What a great matchup to begin the season, in what could potentially be a Super Bowl preview. Even though the Bills will be with starting CB Tre'Davious White, I still have faith in rookies Kaiir Elam and Christian Benford. I worry about the Rams ability to generate pressure outside of Aaron Donald, and their ability to consistently protect Matthew Stafford. Because it's Week 1, I like the team who 'looked the part' in the preseason, and that's the Buffalo Bills.

You read it right. The Super Bowl champs launch their schedule as a home underdog. The Bills bandwagon is overflowing, with the public establishing them as this season’s favorites. However, the Rams have won every opener with Sean McVay as coach, and the past four defending champions have taken their openers straight-up — all against formidable foes. No coach puts less emphasis on exhibition results than McVay, who never uses his regulars, so their preseason scores are misleading. The Rams remain stout, and any health issues with quarterback Matthew Stafford’s passing arm should not surface until later. The 2.5 points is the worst number for an NFL dog, so hold off until game day in case it rises to 3.

I have the Bills rated as the No. 1 team in the NFL heading into the season, a full point better than the next closest team. But once you factor in two points for home-field advantage, I can't see a scenario where they're 4.5 points better than the defending champion Rams. This line ballooned up to 2.5 after reports surfaced that Matthew Stafford was managing an elbow injury, but there's nothing indicating he's in danger of missing this game. Even if it clouds the Rams' 2022 outlook, it shouldn't have impacted this line. I don't think there's any way we're getting 3, and it's possible it moves the other way once people realize Stafford is good to go, so get in now.

Let's get all the prerequisites out of the way. Yes, Super Bowl winners are 19-3 SU in Week 1 games since 2000. Yes, the Rams are 5-0 SU and ATS in Week 1 games under Sean McVay. All of those stats are nice but quite frankly they're just stats. The Rams as an organization went all in to win the Super Bowl in terms of trades, lost draft picks etc. and they did it, hats off to them it was incredible to watch. All that said, that's why I'm fading them here. This game is a celebration, an exhale of accomplishment...with a QB coming back from surgery. Meanwhile this is Buffalo's year to make the run and they're coming in chewing gravel looking to make a statement. Josh Allen's last time out against Los Angeles he threw for 5 TD's and 300+ yards and left with a win. He'll do it again.