Overshadowing the continued absence of Detroit QB Jared Goff is the return of RB D’Andre Swift after a four-game injury rehab. Goff’s replacement, Tim Boyle, improved markedly last Sunday in his second start. The Lions, overlooked all year by the public, are 10-5 ATS. Seattle has dropped five of its last seven straight-up and, with the 29th-ranked offense, should not be spotting more than a touchdown.

The Lions are tied for the third-best ATS record in the league (10-5) despite having just two wins this season, but there is a time to fade them and that time is when the public comes in heavy on Detroit's side (see: 44-6 loss to Eagles). This week's setup looks very similar to that one from Week 8, with about 75% of the bets on the Lions. A public 'dog that's likely to be starting Tim Boyle at QB? Time to zag and lay the points.

The Lions apparently will be without Jared Goff again this week, and I'm pretty sure they aren't scoring more than 14 points with Tim Boyle under center. Can the Detroit defense hold Seattle to 28 or fewer? I think so. It's also going to be rainy and chilly. So, yeah, Seattle in January. Hence why all the grunge rockers dressed in flannel.

You never really know which Seahawks team will show up. What has been showing up recently is the Lions' defense. It has done a solid job of getting off the field and creating turnovers. Having Jared Goff back gives the Detroit offense an opportunity to move the ball. A touchdown seems like a lot here, especially with the Seahawks coming off of an upset loss to the Bears. Expect the Lions to keep it very close.

The Lions held Atlanta to 254 yards in a 20-16 defeat last Sunday, their sixth cover in their last seven games. They lost due to red-zone struggles, but now they're getting Jared Goff back for a visit to Seattle. With all the Seahawks' issues, they should not be laying a full touchdown.

The Lions managed a bit of a cheap cover against the Falcons by kicking a questionable field goal late, but what is notable is how well the defense played, which has been a theme in most games since the bye. The Seattle offense has proven capable of turtling up at any time, and it hasn't managed 300 net passing yards since Week 2. The Seahawks were unable to put the Bears away last week, and this Lions offense has played much better since Dan Campbell took over play-calling, particularly against the Vikings and Cardinals. With Jared Goff back from the COVID list, I expect them to compete once again in this one.