I absolutely hate this number and highly recommend the alt line of -6.5 but it is what it is. Waited all week in the hopes it would drop to 6.5 but it's clearly not going to. So we risk the push. Bill Belichick simply owns rookie quarterbacks as the Pats picked off Zach Wilson four times in Week 2. I would probably take the Jets on the first-half line as there could be a mini-New England letdown after that wild Dallas game but then the Pats hopefully pull away late.

Not only are the Jets 0-3 ATS on the road this season, they're actually a mere 18% ATS on the road since last season (2-9), worst in the NFL. Patriots QB Mac Jones in Weeks 1-3 was only 38% on throws 10+ yards downfield, 2nd worst in the NFL. The last three weeks? 72%, 2nd best in the NFL. Belichick is 12-0 SU all-time at New England vs. rookie QB's with a 17.3 point average margin of victory. The Pats beat the Jets in NY this season 25-6 and New England has gotten better since then, while quite frankly the Jets worse.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Mac Jones has performed perfectly well for a rookie QB in a tough situation, but that doesn't mean I'm going to start trusting him to cover these large spreads. Not even against the New York Jets.

The Jets actually ran the ball well in their 25-6 home loss to New England in Week 2. Since then, the ground attack has floundered. They're averaging 3.6 yards per carry for the season. If that continues, Zach Wilson should be in for another long day: the Pats intercepted him four times on Sept. 19. The Patriots are better than their record -- a late fumble cost them a win over Miami in Week 1, and they had plenty of chances to knock off Dallas last week. Lay the points.

The Patriots played one of the best teams in the league to a stalemate in regulation this past week, and Mac Jones showed plenty of fortitude bouncing back from a pick-six late to throw the perfect pass for a long TD and keep his team in it. I think Jones has progressed since Week 1, and I'm not sure we can say the same about Zach Wilson, who followed up a nice rally against the Titans with a stinker against a bad Falcons defense. The Patriots laid 6.5 on the road against the Jets and easily covered; is New York any better now? I'd be surprised if this line doesn't close near 10, so hop on it early.