Baltimore is in a great spot here able to go all out before a forthcoming bye even if it’s without a couple important playmakers. Coupled with Cincinnati’s hot start to the season, that’s why the Ravens are below a full touchdown entering this game. After mostly beating up on weak competition, the Bengals are going to be in for a shock against not only one of the best teams in the league but a battle-tested one at that. Baltimore has scored 31+ points in each of its three home games, and if it can simply keep the Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase connection to a single score, it should win by double digits. There are spreads without the hook to be had out there ahead of kickoff, so shop around given this is a key number.

The Ravens will be down Latavius Murray and Sammy Watkins for this game, but I don't expect either loss to be a major factor. Lamar Jackson has shown the ability to take over on offense when his team needs it, and aside from a bad start against the Colts, the Ravens defense has been playing excellent football over the last four weeks. The Bengals offense has gotten to play defenses without key players throughout the year (T.J. Watt, Jaire Alexander), but this test reminds me of the Bears game where they were completely shut down until late in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati will certainly be up for this game; I just think Baltimore is playing too well right now for this to be close.

Cincy has compiled some impressive stats, chiefly by the amazing batterymates Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and a defense rated fifth for points allowed (18.5 per game). Yet the Bengals' schedule to date has been on the soft side. Now they bump into a Super Bowl contender that has ruled them. With Lamar Jackson at QB, Baltimore is 5-0 with the average victory spread being three touchdowns. Over the last three meetings, the Ravens have outscored Cincinnati 114-19. Hard to turn the trend around overnight.

Cincinnati is on the rise without question but I don't think Joe Burrow & Co. are quite ready for the big leagues yet -- and by big leagues, I mean winning (or staying within six points) in Baltimore. Look at the Bengals schedule: Who have they really beaten? I do wish I had gotten this at 6, but the SportsLine Projection Model has the Ravens 10 points better and FiveThirtyEight has Baltimore -9 so I'll take this before it potentially hits 7. Lamar Jackson has owned Cincinnati so far in his career.

The Bengals are quietly playing well. They're coming off a 23-point victory, which is their largest in the Zac Taylor era. Joe Burrow has been solid, but the defense has been sneaky good. The defense ranks fifth in points allowed per game (18.5), eighth in yards allowed per game (331.0) and second in yards per play (5.07). Cincinnati can keep this close.

The Ravens closed as 2.5-point favorites over the Chargers, and there's no way the Bengals should be rated four points worse than the Chargers. Cincy brings a strong run defense and a big chip on its collective shoulder to this divisional matchup. While Marlon Humphrey likely will spend a lot of time covering Ja'Marr Chase, the electric rookie can still separate. Joe Burrow also has excellent secondary options in Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins and C.J. Uzomah. Burrow is 8-4-2 ATS in the underdog role, and he can get us through the backdoor if needed. Take the points.

The Bengals scored 6 points combined in losing both meetings last season. The Ravens beat up the Bengals pretty good. Baltimore will be missing numerous key players that made a huge difference then. The Bengals' net yards per play is +0.8, while the Ravens' is +0.1 this season. Cincinnati has the 6th-best offensive line, while the Ravens have the 24th-best, according to Football Outsiders. The Bengals are ranked No. 2 in opponent net yards per play, while the Ravens are ranked No. 21. Cincy is ranked No. 6 in opponent passer rating and Baltimore 13th. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase can't be stopped in the fourth quarter, so the backdoor will always be open.

This game features two exciting QBs complimented by opportunistic defenses. The Bengals are for real, and pose a real threat to the Ravens secondary with their passing game. Six points may seem like a lot, especially with the way the Bengals have played, but they haven't played a team, maybe outside of Pittsburgh, that can pressure the pocket like the Ravens can. Expect Baltimore to steal some possessions in this one.

The Baltimore Ravens enter Sunday with one mission on their mind, continue their dominance over the Cincinnati Bengals and get a win before the Bye week. Lamar Jackson is 5-0 SU against Cincinnati in his career and has covered the last three straight. Couple that with the Ravens have won all three home games this season and in fact have won six straight at home dating back to last season. Their gameplan should mirror last week: score early, score often and don't give Cincinnati room to breathe.