My model has this one at -9.2, and I haven't been impressed with how the Giants have looked at all. The Saints are playing their first game at home, and it should be a tough atmosphere for New York QB Daniel Jones. I think New Orleans' two-headed approach at QB, coupled with RB Alvin Kamara's ability, will be too much for the Giants to handle. I also like the coaching advantage of Sean Payton over Joe Judge. Lay the points.

I hate betting right on 7, but can't really justify the Saints at -340 on the moneyline (although in parlays I certainly will use that). New York lost one of the NFL's top linebackers to a season-ending injury in Week 3, likely will be on its fourth-string left guard Sunday and is without two starting wideouts in Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. How do the Giants score even 13 points? I'd think New Orleans can win by double digits even with the Saints having a few injury concerns of their own. I think at worst we push here.

The Saints continued their Jekyll and Hyde season with an impressive win over the Patriots in New England, but how impressive was the offense in that game? The Saints managed just 4.1 yards per play, and Jameis Winston against put up mediocre passing numbers; in terms of net passing yards, the Saints offense is only averaging about 114 yards per game, and we can't count on that type of offense to put up big point totals week in and week out. Combined with the Saints finally returning home after a month on the road and the distractions that can bring, that makes them a perfect fade as favorites of more than a TD against virtually anyone.

Quietly, Daniel Jones has played well in back-to-back games. The Giants brass hopes that he's turned the corner. However, the offense is still a bit pedestrian and will face a tough Saints defense. Also, the New Orleans offense has done a very good job with bonus opportunities with the ball. I'm on the Saints.