Glad we waited on this one as the spread has risen to 14.5 points, and I don't think Pittsburgh is 14.5 points better than anyone at the moment. Ben Roethlisberger clearly isn't 100 percent healthy as the Steelers haven't topped 19 points in three straight games. Granted, the Bengals aren't good and will be starting Ryan Finley under center, but he's probably an upgrade on injured Brandon Allen (which isn't saying much). The old adage is that you should always back intradivisional home dogs. I'm certainly doing that at +14.5. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its past five at home.

When Mike Tomlin is a sizable road favorite, the games tend to go Under. That should be the case again Monday night with Pittsburgh determined to get its running game going and the Bengals starting QB Ryan Finley. Look for the Under to cash for the 15th straight time when Pittsburgh lays 6-plus points on the road.

This game has drawn a total of 40, one of the lowest this season, yet is paired with a colossal spread. Which presumes either the Steelers will end their prolonged slump on offense or the Bengals will flirt with a shutout. Pittsburgh has tallied 19, 17 and 15 points in its last three outings, respectively, and primary RB James Conner (quadriceps) could be in bubble wrap. Sure, the Bengals are down to third-string QB Ryan Finley and have enough players on injured reserve (11) to field an entire unit. But if they can score a couple of touchdowns, or even one TD and two field goals, a cover is foreseeable.

The Steelers offense has struggled but should face much less resistance from a Cincinnati defense that's giving up 26.0 points a game. On the other side of the ball, the Bengals will be forced to start third-stringer Ryan Finley at quarterback due to the injuries to Joe Burrow and Brandon Allen. Pittsburgh's defense could outscore Cincinnati's defense. My model says the Steelers cover well over 50 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

The Steelers have hit a wall after their 11-0 start, with a yards-per-play differential close to zero thanks to an offense that hasn't looked great over the last few weeks and a defense that has had to deal with several key injuries, particularly at linebacker. Still, they're miles better than a Bengals team without star quarterback Joe Burrow. But Brandon Allen actually looked solid last week that was overshadowed by the offense's fumble issues, while the Cincinnati defense has given up just one offensive TD in each of its last three games. With Pittsburgh on the road in a divisional matchup, this is just too many points. The Bengals won't win, but they'll stay closer than this in a low-scoring game.