The Buccaneers only mustered 303 yards last week at home against Minnesota, and they won't have Ronald Jones or left tackle Donovan Smith today. The underdog has covered four of the last five in this series. Even without Julio Jones, look for Matt Ryan to bounce back from his three-interception debacle as the Falcons keep it close.

We picked against the Falcons as slight favorites at the Chargers last Sunday because Atlanta was without Julio Jones, and Matt Ryan simply has not been the same QB this season or career without the future Hall of Famer. Jones will not play in this game, either. A few key Atlanta defensive players also may sit. The Dirty Birds are eliminated from playoff contention and look like they have quit, while the Bucs have every motivation. They should win by at least a touchdown even potentially without Ronald Jones. Tampa Bay has covered five straight day games.

The Buccaneers don't beat the elite teams, but these are the kind of teams they handle well. Scotty Miller is a big-play guy and Tampa has a solid running game. Matt Ryan is struggling and the Bucs will take advantage. Lay the points.