We are going to double down on Kansas City now that the spread has dropped below -3 -- we already recommended the Chiefs on the moneyline.
The Chiefs have burned me and their bettors time and again this season, and I've taken it personally ... just apparently not personally enough because I'm backing them again here now that we're under a field goal. Kansas City has value in this spot because New Orleans is still getting a lot of credit for a defense that exploited by a rookie last week. What are Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce going to do to it? Drew Brees is back, and I trust that he's healthy, but Michael Thomas is gone for the season. The Chiefs have succeeded in the past about taking away singular weapons. If they can limit Alvin Kamara, who is going to get an endless diet of touches, KC should win and cover the meager spread.
Jumping on the Chiefs now that this number has dipped below 3. Kansas City will be focused, and Drew Brees might need some time to shake off the rust. The Chiefs have not covered any of their last five, and that's why we're getting such a good number. Lay it.
Getting Drew Brees back is huge for the Saints offense; the team scored 24 or more points in all of their first nine games but were only able to top that number once with Taysom Hill, and that came in a phony game against a quarterback-less Broncos team. Even though we all likely agree the Chiefs are the best team in football, it's the Saints that rank No. 1 in DVOA thanks to an excellent defense that should be at the top of its game after getting stunned by the Eagles. The Chiefs have been involved in a lot of one-score games lately and are set to play their fourth road game in a five-week span. It's a bad spot worth fading.
Hate to take the moneyline way out here, but I refuse to bet games sitting on three points (I'll be buying down to Chiefs -2.5). Yes, Drew Brees is back but how effective can he really be? Plus, think the Chiefs defenders might target those ribs? Brees will not have reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year in wideout Michael Thomas, and that's huge. Perhaps that allows Kansas City to gear up more on stopping Alvin Kamara.
He’s back, baby. QB Drew Brees (ribs, lung), out four weeks, is set to return. Brees’ mates managed to go 3-1 straight-up in his absence, proof that the Saints are formidable without their cornerstone player. K.C. has pulled off the nigh-impossible, having become the first team in 34 years to win five consecutive games outright -- all by one-score margins -- without covering in any. A mini-epidemic of back pain has spread through the Chiefs’ offensive tackles, with three affected. All missed practices this week, and their status is uncertain. QB Patrick Mahomes’ scrambling ability could be tested.
The Saints defense was playing very well until last week against the Eagles, but since completely shutting down Tampa Bay, they'd played the Falcons twice, a 49ers team with Nick Mullens, and a Broncos offense with Kendall Hinton. The Chiefs offense is an entirely different animal, and I don't see how the Saints get enough stops to keep this game close. We don't know for sure who will start at QB for New Orleans, but whether it's Jameis or Taysom, both are turnover prone.
Kansas City has been a poor investment lately, failing to cover its last five. I don't like the defensive lapses I see from the Chiefs. Coming off their first loss since Week 3, the Saints should bounce back at home. Grab the points.
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