Other than last week's poor outing against Arizona, the Giants running game has put up big numbers recently: 190, 142, 151, 166, 101, 160 and 132 rushing yards. The Browns run defense, outside of the Tennessee game, has allowed 231, 140, 106, 90 and 209 in recent weeks. I think New York can run the ball on Cleveland and keep this a one-score game. My model says the Giants cover almost 60 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value at this number.

Personnel losses on the field and the sideline have put New York behind the eight-ball. James Bradberry, the Giants’ premier CB, is on the Covid-19 list, joining offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. The chances of QB Daniel Jones (leg) playing diminish with each passing day. The Browns showed their mettle in an excruciating loss to Baltimore and are eager to cleanse their palates. On a roll with eight TD throws and one interception in his past three games, QB Baker Mayfield can slice and dice the Giants’ secondary minus Bradberry.

Sure, there's a worry about the Browns having a letdown from Monday's insane loss -- but, again, are there letdowns after a loss? Plus, Cleveland still hasn't even locked up a playoff spot and is expecting back top cornerback Denzel Ward and No. 1 tight end Austin Hooper from injury (see newsfeed story). The Giants, meanwhile, probably won't have gimpy starting QB Daniel Jones and for sure will be without offensive coordinator Jason Garrett (wait, that might be a good thing, at least so say most Big Blue fans) and one of the NFL's highest-rated cornerbacks in James Bradberry. He and Garrett are on the COVID-19 list, and maybe there will be Giants more to come in that regard. Get this line now under a TD.

This matchup comes down to how much you trust Daniel Jones' health, as the Giants would be a clear value at this number if he was 100%. But after enduring a sackfest in last week's loss to Arizona and having to come out early, Jones seems like he'll be far from full health here. The Giants O-line isn't getting a break this week against Myles Garrett and Co., so it's hard to have faith in the Giants offense. And while the Giants defense has been great against the run this year, they've been less so over the last few weeks. With the Browns offense firing on all cylinders, they should be able to put up points here, and I don't think the Giants keep up.