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Expert Picks
The Vikings are being underrated in this matchup as I have them as more than five points better than this Bears team. There has been an overadjustment to last week's results. Minnesota is capable of beating bad teams and should be able to outlast a Chicago team that is still searching for answers. The Vikings have an advantage in every area except defense, and even there, it’s close enough to not factor much into the result. As long as Minnesota keeps its turnovers down, it could win this by a touchdown.
The Bears snapped their six-game losing streak with last week’s 36-7 win over Houston. A catalyst was David Montgomery, who has rushed for an average of 96 yards over his last three games. Meanwhile, Chicago QB Mitchell Trubisky has won his last four starts against the Vikings. Expect the Bears to keep their momentum going.
The Vikings are still missing the quarterback of their defense, linebacker Eric Kendricks, and they catch a Bears' offense that has come alive. Akiem Hicks should help Chicago contain Dalvin Cook. Take the points as Mitchell Trubisky (7 TDs, 2 INTs last three weeks) continues to play well.
The first meeting in Chicago was a sleepy affair. The Vikings won 19-13 but weren't able to do much of anything on the ground, as the Bears defense kept Dalvin Cook in check as it typically does. The Bears offense was even more pathetic than usual, managing only 149 yards in the game, averaging 3.0 yards per play. Things should be a little better for Chicago this time, as they've replaced Nick Foles with Mitch Trubisky (yes, it's an upgrade), and David Montgomery will play after being injured for the first meeting. That will improve the Bears offense, but not to a degree where I think the final result will look all that different.
Despise games sitting right on 3 points, so I'll be buying this down to Vikings -2.5. I'm a Bears fan and am not fooled by the sudden resurgence of Mitchell Trubisky (see news feed for odds on his future in Chicago). All those nice numbers came in garbage time vs. the Packers and against two bad defenses in the Lions and Texans. Defensively, the Bears might be without two of their top three cornerbacks in good-looking rookie Jaylon Johnson and nickel Buster Skrine due to injury. Chicago is also 1-6 ATS in its past seven divisional games. The Vikings played quite well last week and might have won in Tampa if not for kicker Dan Bailey. They usually bounce back big after a loss under Mike Zimmer.
The Bears offense has been revitalized under Mitchell Trubisky, but some of his success must be credited to the schedule; most teams should be able to pile on points against the Lions and Texans at home. The Vikings defense may not impress if you're just looking at the scoreboard but they've been improving as the season rolls along, allowing the Bucs to gain only 303 yards of offense last week. In fact, the Vikings outrank the Bears in third down success rate on defense while matching their red zone success rate. The Vikings offense was able to move the ball in Chicago in the previous meeting, and I expect Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson and Co. to do enough here to get the cover.
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