This is a bit of a flier pick, especially after I swore off taking the Cowboys weeks ago. It comes down to a few things, namely the Cowboys' passing offense, Andy Dalton playing his former team and the potential for Ezekiel Elliott to run wild on this Bengals defense. Dallas has not been good defensively either, but there's no Joe Mixon in this game for Cincinnati. The Bengals were capable bordering on good with Joe Burrow; without him, they're a middling team. These are two of the worst defenses in the league, but the Cowboys have just enough offense to cover. Do not take this over a field goal.

Dallas' run defense is unbelievably bad, but without Joe Burrow the Bengals offense has been horrendous running (and passing). They have 150 total rushing yards in their past three games. Joe Mixon is not returning, and without the passing game even the Cowboys defense can limit Cincinnati. My model says Dallas covers well over 50 percent of the time and wins by seven, so you're getting strong value at this number.