One of the six Sunday favorites of seven points or more will fall, but which one? The most sound case I made to myself was the Jaguars scoring enough to win with Mike Glennon at quarterback and James Robinson at running back. But after I reviewed the matchup, the Over became a better play. The Jags almost beat the Browns last week and sent the game Over. The Vikings have looked horrible in their last two games -- both at home. They lost to Dallas, 31-28, and beat Carolina in the last second to win 28-27, and both went Over. The Over is the best play of this game.

The Vikings are trying to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive and showed some moxie in their last-second win against Carolina last week. They get the opportunity to take advantage of a really bad Jaguars football team. While Jacksonville is competitive, Minnesota's passing game has a bit more trust in its QB than the Browns had in their QB, Baker Mayfield, against the Jaguars last week.

The Vikings saved their season with a dramatic comeback win over the Panthers, and I look for them to roll Sunday against the defensively-challenged Jaguars. Jacksonville gives up 4.5 yards per carry and has allowed 14 rushing touchdowns. That fits with what Minnesota wants to do. Lay the points with Mike Zimmer's bunch, who typically thrive ATS outside the division.