There are rumors that the Lions could dump Coach Matt Patricia if they lose this game at home to a bad team. He's a goner after the year regardless. I didn't like this at all when it was Detroit -3.5 but believe at worst this will finish as a push at -3 (I'll be buying down to -2.5). Alex Smith is a great comeback story, but he shouldn't be an NFL starting QB. Isn't Matthew Stafford worth at least 3 points in that matchup? Detroit will also pound a bad Washington run defense with Adrian Peterson (he'll have some vengeance on his mind against the team that cut him on the eve of the season) and D'Andre Swift.

Even though there's a big DVOA gap between these teams, I think Washington is the better team moving forward. The QB change might be a net positive, as Alex Smith is the type of veteran that can manage games and let his defense beat bad teams. And the Lions are bad at this point, and they should struggle to throw the ball against a Washington defense that ranks No. 1 in pass DVOA. Expect Washington to run the ball easily against the struggling Detroit defense and pull off an outright win, and getting more than a field goal on this number is a bonus.