I liked the Patriots at -7 early in the week, but I didn't get the number before the Sam Darnold news. My issues with the current price is the gap between Sam Darnold and Joe Flacco isn't worth three points. I make New England -8.9 points better on the road. Joe Flacco is far from a great QB in 2020, but he has the better offensive weapons in this game with Crowder, Perriman and Mims all healthy for basically the first time this season. Take the points with the primetime home dog.

The game absolutely nobody was asking for. The Jets offense is putrid, and it only gets worse when Joe Flacco starts. The Patriots can only run the ball, but the Jets defense actually does a very good job of stopping the run. It's going to be every bit as ugly as you fear.

The Jets only average 11 points and have scored just eight touchdowns in as many games. Things get worse tonight because QB Joe Flacco will be leading coach Adam Gase’s offense. But the good news is that New York's defense has played hard the last two games against high-powered offenses. The Patriots enter with a four-game losing streak and QB Cam Newton is sulking. I took the Jets with the points.

Frankly, the Patriots shouldn't be double-digit favorites over anyone right now, even the sorry Jets -- although in all honesty I'll be buying a half-point and playing this at Jets +10.5 to avoid a potential push. New England will be without its two top wideouts in Julian Edelman and N'Keal Harry as well as cornerback and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore. The Pats have a ton of other guys listed as questionable. The Jets will not be starting Sam Darnold, but I'm not sure that's a bad thing. They also will have their top three wideouts healthy in the same game this year for the first time. This season, home underdogs in division games are 11-1 ATS.

Joe Flacco is starting for the Jets, who mustered a total of 10 points in his two starts this season versus the Cardinals and Dolphins. The Patriots are averaging 13 points during their four-game losing streak. This is a key number, so go Under before it drops.

Patriots QB Cam Newton played much better last week versus Buffalo, up until the unfortunate fumble that cost them the game. The fact that we saw glimpses of him getting back to his pre-Covid self was a good sign for this Patriots offense. Defensively, they figure to make things extremely difficult for the New York Jets, who seem to find new and creative ways to stay in their own way on game day.

The Patriots offense has to run the ball to be effective, but that's the one thing the Jets do well, ranking 10th in both rush defense DVOA and yards per rush allowed. And while the Patriots defense has struggled this year, we can't expect Bill Belichick to have an issue figuring out how to stop an offense that ranks last in DVOA, points per drive, third-down success rate and red-zone success rate while scoring 10 points or less in five of their last six games. The Jets have scored 36 points in their last five games combined vs. the Pats, but it gets worse; New York has scored just one offensive TD in that stretch. Bang the Under here.

My model says the Patriots cover in almost 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting good value with them at this number. New England has won eight straight meetings, the last five by double digits. This will be its first time facing the Jets with Cam Newton, who won both of his previous career contests against New York. Each of the 0-8 Jets' losses have been by at least eight points, and they are 1-7 against the spread. Expect the Patriots to end their four-game slide in this one.