Simulation Picks
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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks!
Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks
This is not your uncle's New England Patriots. This team will get better as the year goes on, but it lost way too much talent and currently is below-average. Several important players left the team before the season started and the captain of the offensive line, David Andrews, was placed on IR on Saturday, dropping the Patriots' rating another 1 1/2 points. All of the tangible trends add up for New England, with the Patriots coming off a SU loss (69 percent ATS) and the Raiders a SU win (36 percent). Those trends will not matter with Las Vegas coming in three points better on paper than New England.
The Raiders were impressive against the Saints, but this is a bad spot, traveling cross-country on a short week to face a Bill Belichick-coached team coming off a loss. Lay it as Cam Newton continues his strong play.
I love the value we're getting here on a Patriots team coming off a loss against a Raiders team that just earned an upset win. Over the last five years, the Raiders are on an NFL-worst 11-19 ATS stretch after a win since the start of 2016, while the Patriots are 9-4 ATS after a loss during that same stretch. Derek Carr also struggles on the road in short rest games, where's he's 1-4 ATS. He figures to regress against this defense in a huge letdown spot for Las Vegas. The lookahead line on this game was Patriots -6.5, and that seems closer to what it should be.
As bad spots go, it doesn't get much worse than coming off a huge win in your Vegas home debut over one of the NFL's best teams, then having to face Bill Belichick on a short week in New England. And you can throw in that the Pats lost their last game. The good news for the Raiders is it looks like they'll be enjoying a huge home-field advantage for decades to come, but this week they'll be the team that looks hungover. Lay the points.
The Raiders are coming off a huge win, but they're traveling on a short week and their offensive line is banged up. Cam Newton is playing well. Coming off a loss, I think Bill Belichick will have something up his sleeve. Lay the points.
Team Injuries
