N.Y. Jets @ Buffalo

My projection model has the Bills as a far superior team, and I have them winning by 10 on Sunday. It's tempting to grab points in a divisional game, but not with teams headed in opposite directions. Buffalo is covering nearly 60 percent of my simulations. Lay the points.

The Bills closed out last season staying Under the total in six of their last seven games while the Jets stayed Under in five of their last six. Both meetings last season stayed Under, the first a 17-16 Bills win and the second a 13-6 Jets win in Week 17. No preseason and less practice won’t help the rhythm or psyche of either of these young QBs. Both defenses will be the stars of this game. Under is the play.

A divisional rivalry in Week 1. Buffalo's Josh Allen is one of the least accurate quarterbacks when throwing the deep ball, and the New York Jets defense was No. 2 against the run last year. A big reason why both meetings last season were very low-scoring. Buffalo won 17-16 at New York and the Jets posted a 13-6 road triumph in the season finale as the Bills rested many starters for the playoffs. With no preseason, I would expect these two defenses to dominate, giving more value to the plus-6.5 points.

Neither game between these division rivals last season saw more than 33 points scored. Maybe the Bills offense will be a lot better in 2020, but the Jets won't be. Plus, it's hard to ignore the fact that the Under has gone 20-8 when Josh Allen is starting for the Bills.

The Bills have a fantastic defense and now Josh Allen has Stefon Diggs to throw to and Zack Moss in the backfield along with Devin SIngletary. The Jets stink. They hate their coach. This number could close higher.

The Jets lost their two best defensive players, Jamal Adams (trade) and CJ Mosley (opt out), this offseason. A third projected starter, Patrick Onwuasor, is on injured reserve. Two of the team's top three wideouts, Breshad Perriman and rookie Denzel Mims, are in question for Sunday. NY is 3-10 ATS in its past 13 AFC East games. Meanwhile, this might be the best Bills team since the 1990s. What am I missing here? Jump on this spread before it climbs to Buffalo -7 or higher.

The Bills are going to be a tough team, as they have plenty of talent up and down their roster and a very solid defense. The offense should be even better this year as QB Josh Allen continues to get stronger with each start and has plenty of weapons around him. He possesses a very strong arm and will stretch a Jets defense that is missing several players who have either been traded, opted opt or gotten hurt. New York has a ton of injuries on offense, so it should be a big day for Buffalo's defense.