Andy Dalton returns as the starter at quarterback, which is a 3.5-point upgrade. The Bengals are the only winless team in the NFL and will be playing for their first win. The Jets have scored 34 points in each of their last three games against Oakland, Washington and the Giants. Even after the last three weeks, the Jets average just 18 points per -- so we can expect a regression back to the mean.

QB Andy Dalton was not exactly setting the house afire before being replaced by Ryan Finley. Still, Dalton's return gives winless Cincy a lift after Finley generated 33 points in three starts. It’s a sign that the Bengals are not tanking. New York has rung up 34 points in each of the past three outings as Sam Darnold finally looks like a pro QB. The Jets have managed Overs in four of the last five on the road and overall. Over is the play.

There tends to be value backing winless teams this late in the year, and after I squeezed out a cover taking Bengals at +6.5 last week, I'm going back to the well this week. The Jets offense has started to hit its stride, but I don't think they'll have as much success here against a Bengals defense that ranks fourth in red zone TD percentage. The Bengals are desperate to avoid a winless season, turning back to Andy Dalton for this game. He didn't play well in the first half of the year but is miles better than Ryan Finley and has Cordy Glenn protecting his blind side now. Make sure to sprinkle a little on the moneyline too.