The Jets are awful, but they’re not Dolphins-level awful. The Jets are actually 11th in defensive DVOA (Miami is dead last in defense, 31st in offense), and it's very unlikely Sam Darnold will be seeing ghosts against these DBs, especially with Xavien Howard on IR. The Dolphins have covered in their last three, but barely covered a 14.5-point spread after going up 14-0 against Mason Rudolph. Lay the points.

Both teams are among the worst offensively in the league, averaging just 11 points per game. Where they differ is in the effort. The Dolphins seem like they can move the ball on offense, more so than the Jets. Defensively, Miami has a much more cohesive group, despite all of the changes. Look for the Phins to get their first win of the season.

Despite the chaos in the locker room following a trade deadline where it sounds like multiple stars were available but only one dealt, the Jets should have an easy time wit the Dolphins here. While they've been bad, they haven't sunk to the level of the Dolphins, a team that has lost all but one game by double digits (and was behind 17-3 entering the fourth quarter of that outlier). Now Miami has a short turnaround after losing 27-14 despite taking a 14-0 lead to start the game. I can't see them winning this game, so I'm laying the relatively small number with the road team.