I'm looking for Carson Wentz to have a breakout game versus a Jets defense that ranks 28th against the pass. Jason Peters is probable to boost the offensive line. The Eagles’ defense, which ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass, likes to play a lot of bend but don't break defense which should really help Luke Falk get into the red zone at least five of his 12 drives.

The public kept this line under two touchdowns until clarification on the status of New York QB Sam Darnold (mono), but there was little doubt he would sit out. Confirmation of Luke Falk as the starter bumped up the spread. The Jets are stepping out of a bye week, while Philadelphia has declared out five players, most notably WR DeSean Jackson. Only four healthy CBs are available. Those factors, plus a No. 12 efficiency rating for the Jets’ defense, point to a cover even as a straight-up win seems impossible.

We think Adam Gase is an awful coach, but he was 5-0 ATS with extra time to prepare in Miami. We think Luke Falk is an awful QB, but he went 20 of 25 when pressed into MNF duty, and can you knock him for struggling vs. NE? We think the Jets defense is awful, but they're above average in pass DVOA, rush DVOA and points allowed per drive. We know the Eagles D-line is awesome, but they're last in adjusted sack rate. Throw in injuries to Philly's D leaving the backdoor open, and nonconference 'dogs going 7-2 since 2017 when getting 13-plus points, and I'm going to back the Jets here.

The Jets are coming off of a bye and still don't have starting QB Sam Darnold back in the lineup. Darnold has been cleared to throw, but he hasn't been cleared for contact. We have seen what this offense has looked like this season, and with or without Darnold, the Jets don't stand much of a chance against the Eagles defense.