The familiarity of Bill Belichick and Bill O’Brien will likely pose as a value indicator on the Under for Sunday’s total. That and the fact that Deshaun Watson will be returning to the field for the first time since last October. Additionally, quarterback Tom Brady will be without key wide receiver Julian Edelman and does not have skilled back Dion Lewis anymore. Yet both of these teams are offensive teams and will yield the expected rust on each others defenses. Grab the over.

The Patriots, coming off a tough Super Bowl loss, looked sharped this preseason. While New England's offense should be able to continue motoring under Tom Brady, questions abound on defense after the departure of Matt Patricia. The Texans have a lot of great individual pieces on offense that could make them the NFL's most explosive offense, but until they mesh together as a unit, New England is still the AFC king. My projections are indicating a stat-packed day for Deshaun Watson, but too many New England weapons will wear down the Houston defense. Back the Pats.

Time comes for us all, and at some point, it's going to come for Tom Brady. I don't think the first week of the season will be when it happens, though. This line is smaller than it should be, and you should take advantage of it. Brady has been a profitable quarterback to bet on his entire career, and this is a juicy spot. Since the 2009 season, Tom Brady and the Patriots have been favored by seven points or fewer at home 34 times. They are 24-7-3 ATS in those 34 games.

We saw these two teams play a fantastic game last season. This year, with both teams at their healthiest (especially the Texans), we should be in store for another great game. Here's the difference -- the Patriots don't have the same cache on the flanks at receiver as they did last season, and will face a Texans defense that looks stronger on the back end than it did a season ago with the additions of S Tyrann Mathieu and rookie DB Justin Reid.

I think Houston can win this game straight-up. New England will have difficulties being able to protect Tom Brady against that defense. The Texans have their quarterback healthy, they're balanced offensively, and I think Houston is the better team.