The Titans squeezed into the playoffs with a win over the Jaguars in Week 17, and had a memorable comeback win in Kansas City last week. But their Cinderella story ends Saturday against the top-seeded Patriots, who are 6-1 ATS in their past seven playoff games and have covered four straight at home. I just don't see Tennessee having the firepower needed to hang with New England for four quarters, and turnover-prone Marcus Mariota is capable of mistakes that will hinder the upset attempt.

This is one of those games I played because the inflated spread just couldn't be ignored. The NFL line is the most sound in all sports, but when teams start rolling and the public rallies behind them, sportsbooks levy a luxury tax on the hot team. The Patriots have covered nine of their last 10. Because it's the playoffs, give home field 3.5 points. The differential is 10 points on a neutral field, giving four points of value with the Titans, who have been underrated and covered six of their last seven. I'm with the Titans.

The Over is 7-0-1 in the Pats' last eight divisional playoff games, and I think New England comes out clicking, makes this a shootout and dares Tennessee to keep up. Go Over.

My projections see the gritty Titans sticking within 10 points of the Patriots in their AFC playoff showdown Saturday. Tennessee should have some confidence stemming from its epic comeback win against Kansas City, and its running game has the potential to limit New England's possessions. Although most public bettors likely will back the chalk, my numbers say the two-touchdown underdog gets the money.

The Patriots have a poor defense, particularly in defending the run. The Titans sound like the perfect team to give them trouble, right? I doubt it. Bill Belichick can scheme to slow down Derrick Henry and force Marcus Mariota to beat him, and from Mariota's body of work this season, he's probably not going to be up to the task. Considering Tom Brady is on the other side, Mariota will have to throw downfield to keep up on the scoreboard. Don't count on Tennessee's offense doing their part. Bill Belichick vs. Mike Mularkey is as big a coaching mismatch as you'll ever find in the playoffs. Patriots roll.

Finally! Tennessee’s second-half showing against Kansas City offered a glimpse of how good this team can be. Any semblance of a repeat at New England will assure of a cover. It would be nice if RB DeMarco Murray (knee), who was idled last Saturday, is back to rotate carries with Derrick Henry. But, as a solo act, Henry was aces and can handle the load if Murray needs more R&R time. The Titans, at a No. 13 ranking, were above average on defense in the regular season, so a Patriots’ runaway is improbable. The bye surely will help old man Brady, but the New England QB seems to be slowing down as the season’s finish line approaches. Tom has been less than terrific lately.

The deeper you move into the playoffs, the tougher and tighter the games tend to be. The Titans have the added benefit of belief because of the way they fought back against the Chiefs. They won’t forget to pack their running game on this road trip, and will also utilize the legs of Marcus Mariota even more.