As my hometown team, I tend to stay away from picking Dolphins games because it only leads to disappointment. And if you took the Fins in their first meeting with the Jets this season, well you probably felt that as well. Here's the rub: Miami seems to be on the verge of repeating its 2016 season under coach Adam Gase, one which it began 1-4 only to win six straight games and make its way into the playoffs. Not saying that will be the case in 2017 with Jay Cutler under center, but the Dolphins' defense has stepped up as of late with Reshad Jones finding form after a year sidelined. The Jets get grounded in the Sunshine State.

The Jets are winning exactly half of my simulations, making them a strong money line play at +150. New York has won four of the past six meetings, and I'll never pass up a chance to bet against Jay Cutler.