Team speed kills, and Clemson has it in spades. It also has the best defensive coordinator in college football, Brent Venables, who exploits vulnerabilities better than anyone else in the game. Justin Fields has looked just that -- vulnerable -- all season. And Venables not only has tape to rely on but the experience of facing Fields once before -- one year ago. On the other end, we have two seasons of knowing exactly how well Clemson plays with Trevor Lawrence under center. He hurt Ohio State with his legs last year in this game, and I expect that to happen again. There are scenarios where the Buckeyes cover or even win this game. But the most likely result is an clean Clemson win, potentially by double digits.

SUGAR BOWL -- The "sharps" (for those who don't know, the pro bettors who drop big money) have pushed this down from 7.5 to 7 and now I think it's good value as at worst Clemson should win by a touchdown. We just aren't sure the Buckeyes are 100 percent healthy either due to COVID reasons or Justin Fields' thumb. I would take Ohio State on the first-half line, though, as Clemson adjusts without offensive coordinator Tony Elliott (COVID). But then the Tigers' superior talent wins out in the second half.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF -- The last time the Buckeyes were steep underdogs in a bowl game was 2014 against Alabama. The rarity of a large spread is proper based on the Tigers' history against the Buckeyes. They blew them out 31-0 in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, and last year defeated the Buckeyes 29-23. The Big Ten’s down year and Clemson hitting its stride at the right time make this spread justified. Grab Clemson.

SUGAR BOWL -- What does every coach tell his players before a big game? "Don't give the opponent anything to post in the locker room to fire them up." But Clemson's Dabo Swinney thought it was necessary to put up the Buckeyes being No. 11 in a national poll after they already were chosen for the CFP. It was a calculated dig. The Buckeyes also have revenge on their minds after losing to Clemson last season due to a late controversial call by officials. Ohio State fell 29-23 despite gaining 99 more total yards. There are too many points here, so I took them with a more-motivated-than-usual Ohio State.

SUGAR BOWL -- Clemson's defense has gotten healthy at the right time and there's something off about Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields and, more importantly, the offensive play-calling. It's hard to imagine both of these teams getting to the 30s in what should be more of a defensive battle than most are expecting.

It's hard to trust Ohio State after what we saw in the Big Ten Championship Game. Justin Fields was a mess, the play-calling was bizarre and the defense is still hard to trust. Meanwhile, Clemson unleashed the Trevor Lawrence running game the last time out, and that will continue against the Buckeyes. This one will be close for awhile, but the Tigers will pull away late to get the win and cover.