Did Michigan become Alabama overnight? I understand the Wolverines have looked dominant at home this season, but the Nittany Lions are not some shlubs. Penn State is capable of winning this game, and the fact that I only needed a half point to buy this up to two touchdowns personally is astounding to me. The Michigan State loss was bad, yes, but as long as Trace McSorley is behind center, I'm never counting him out of covering a double-digit spread. PSU's two losses this season are by a combined five points, and we all know it should have beaten Ohio State.

The spread in this game is a bit tricky, but I do believe there's value on the total. Penn State's offense has had trouble finding consistency this season, and is going up against one of the best defenses in the country. That combined with a Michigan offense that takes its time and looks to limit its opponents possessions makes for a likely Under here.

Michigan has the fifth-best defense and Penn State No. 23. Michigan has been very conservative on offense, while Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley is not 100 percent.

Michigan has a stellar defense and its offense isn't bad either, but this point spread is out of hand. Penn State has tallied season-high points allowed against five of its eight defenses its faced, gave Ohio State all it could handle and its two losses were by a combined five points. My computer projections ultimately call for a one-score game -- PSU is covering in a solid two-thirds of my simulations and is worth backing here at this spread.