SportsLine Projection Model: Chris Paul trade hugely increases Phoenix Suns' odds to make playoffs, 2020-21 season win total

No question that the biggest winner of the NBA's restart in the bubble was the Los Angeles Lakers because they won a championship. Arguably the second-biggest winner was the Phoenix Suns even though they barely missed a playoff spot. The Suns were the only team to go unbeaten in the bubble and it has led to a ton of optimism for the 2020-21 season. That optimism only got bigger Monday with the trade for future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul from Oklahoma City.

NBA win totals aren't out yet for the 72-game season that will begin Dec. 22, but the Suns are likely to be place at around 37 wins when William Hill sportsbook releases its totals later this week. It probably will happen after Wednesday's draft.

The SportsLine Projection Model used an 82-game schedule to calculate Phoenix's win percentage and then used that percentage over 72 games to come up with a win total --- jumping the Suns from 35.5 wins to 39.2. Prior to the trade via the model, Phoenix was just under .500 and in a battle for the last few seeds in the West.

William Hill is not expected to be quite that generous via win totals with the addition of the 35-year-old Paul, although he was terrific last season for the Thunder in averaging 17.6 points, 6.7 assists and 5.0 rebounds. The book had opened Phoenix at +5000 to win the NBA title and +3000 to win the West and the Suns are now +4000 and +2500, respectively.

Paul will be reunited with head coach Monty Williams, who coached him in his early days with New Orleans and forms a terrific trio with Devin Booker, who went nuts in the bubble, and young big man Deandre Ayton.

The Suns did lose two solid contributors in the trade in Ricky Rubio and Kelly Oubre (he didn't play in the bubble due to injury) as well as sending spare parts Ty Jerome (he was a 2019 first-round pick) and Jalen Lecque along with a 2022 protected first-round pick to OKC for Paul and throw-in Abdel Nader.

Phoenix picks 10th in Wednesday's NBA draft and clearly wasn't prepared to offer that, and the team didn't want to send a 2021 first-round pick to the Thunder because scouts expect that to be a stellar class of prospects. The Pacific Division is going to be nuts this season with the Lakers, Clippers, Warriors and Suns all stacked. 

Oklahoma City, now +6000 to win the Western Conference, is in full rebuild mode with this trade and that of guard Dennis Schroder to the Los Angeles Lakers for Danny Green (probably will be flipped or bought out) and the 28th overall pick in Wednesday's draft. OKC has a gazillion first-round picks over the next few years thanks to these two deals and previous ones sending Russell Westbrook to Houston and Paul George to the Clippers. Don't be surprised if Steven Adams is the next Thunder player traded.

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