We see occasional blips from Dallas but the Mavs continue to look in disarray. With Kyrie Irving out and Anthony Davis likely sidelined, Dallas is a shell of itself on the court. Also, this is just the fifth road game of the season for the Mavs, with the only win on their travels at lowly Washington, and losses by eight or more in the other three away. Miami is minus Norman Powell tonight but might not lose much as Tyler Herro is set to make his season debut after recovering from an ankle injury. The Heat continues as a pleasant surprise, now four straight wins and covers, all vs. teams playing much better than Dallas. Play Heat.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. been nothing short of terrific this season even hitting exactly 7 assists in 6 of his last 8 games (4 in the other two) leading to an impressive 11-6 (7-1 at home) record for Miami playing without Bam for a stretch and Tyler Herro, who is making his return tonight. He is crushing this line this season (12-4 over with a 29.2 average) but with Herro's return we project him to be somewhere in between last season (14.8 avg) and this season with a 23 PRA projection. Herro's return will cut significantly into Jacquez's minutes and usage.

DraftKings. Cooper Flagg is under this points and assists line in 10 of 17 games this season, including all four on the road, and seven of nine against the league’s top 20 defenses. With Bam Adebayo back in the fold for the Heat, Miami’s defense is made whole. As is, the Heat are fourth in defensive rating, and I expect either Adebayo or Andrew Wiggins to draw the Flagg assignment. This line reads as a projection of what Flagg will be, but not where his level of play currently is. I’d bet this down to under 19.5.