Aaron Gordon has been playing great basketball but he’s a regression candidate and considering the price point here and that he’s a sub 34% shooter from the perimeter, I will continue to go back to the proverbial well. This is also a tough matchup versus a Houston defense that plays slow as they rank bottom five in pace of play/possessions per game. Will take fade AG threes as long as it’s plus money and set at 1.5.

Aaron Gordon's minutes are up +2 vs last season, his rebounding is up +1.4 per game, his scoring is way up +5.6 per game, but in 12 games his assists per game have dropped massively from 3.2 to 1.4 per game. This drove his line to barely minus money on just 1.5 assists. In our model the three straight seasons of 3+ assists per game is keeping Gordon at a projection of 2.7 and I'll bank on stats accumulated over 200 games over ones based on a 12 game sample.