The LA Lakers got big news today with the return of Luka Doncic, who has missed the last three games. In his first two games he scored over 40 points, but also took an average of twenty five shots. Additionally, we also have an example of Reaves carrying the Lakers as the number one option with 45 points against the Pacers last season. When Doncic entered the lineup the Lakers dropped two games to the Jazz and Charlotte Hornets. Take the home team here with the Memphis Grizzlies.

We are projecting Austin Reaves for 39.5, so there's not a ton of line value and we are assuming / hoping that Luka does in fact make his return. But we are mostly expecting him to regress to his already high mean after averaging just under 50 PRA in 5 games this season. Reaves is being priced as an MVP with SGA like lines and that's just not sustainable. Between Luka's presence at least reducing Reaves' assists and rebounds and/or having an off day shooting we expect under for AR.