I'm going to rely on Orlando's road vs home splits since last season. They were 19-25 on the road with a -4 point differential last season and lost to Philadelphia by 12 in their first road game of this season. Detroit just got crushed at home by Cleveland, so I think that is skewing this line too much. Last season Detroit shot 35% at home (37% on the road) and so far this season they are shooting just 29% from 3pt range. But Orlando allowed Philly to shoot 42% from 3pt range and allowed +3% higher 3pt shooting in their road games (38% vs 35% at home) last season. Our projected +2.5% 3pt shooting for Detroit is why we have them winning 57% of simulations.