On top of the fact that Indiana's top guys haven't shot as well at home, New York is learning quickly that playing Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson together is creating on offensive buffet for Indiana. Those two played fewer minutes together in Game 2 and the total went easily under. I would bet on even fewer minutes for that tandem in Game 3, as Tom Thibodeau has already switched up his starting lineup.

(Derrick Rose and Luol Deng wrecker) Tom Thibodeau might start Mitchell Robinson tonight for the first time because he has been easily the best defender/rebounder in the series and Indiana is basically terrorizing Karl-Anthony Towns when he's on defense. Robinson played 29 minutes in Game 2, by far his most in these playoffs and second-most all season. He pulled down nine boards. Rebounding is the Pacers' biggest weakness. Should be a fun day in Indy with the 500 (I used to care about that race and know most of the drivers, but now I probably couldn't name more than five) and this.

This is a strong buy-low opportunity on Ben Mathurin. He played a major role against Milwaukee and early in the Cleveland series but has been quiet since being ejected early in Game 4 of that series. Despite a recent 3-1 under stretch and a 10.8 average over his last nine games, his home splits are elite: he's 37-4 (90.2%) to the over on this line at home, averaging 21.5 Points + Rebounds, compared to 18.7 on the road. Mathurin consistently gets early rotation minutes. Even if he doesn't reach his usual 30 minutes, he's 8-3 to the over when playing just 17–22 minutes. In Game 1 against New York, he posted 9 points and 3 rebounds in 21 minutes.

This is a low number for KAT who has played mostly well in the postseason, although his numbers have dipped compared to the regular season. Twins has arguably the best matchup of any member of the Knicks and I expect him to be the focal point of the gameplan. I also like that Indiana plays uptempo and I like this game to be high scoring.

Rick Carlisle is making sure to use all of his available options, best illustrated by the 39 points scored by F Pascal Siakam on Friday (many of those, but not all, when Karl-Anthony Towns was on the floor at the stop end) after Aaron Nesmith joined Tyrese Haliburton as the big-play heroes of Game One. Carlisle’s 11-deep bench affords him some luxuries, though Tom Thibodeau nonetheless has a puncher's chance if Jalen Brunson continues to abuse the Pacers. Totals-wise, though Game 2 landed a bucket short of another over result, Pacers-Knicks games, including the regular season, have all hit 221 or higher; both teams also have offensive ratings of 120 or better in the conference finals. Over still seems a viable idea. Play Knicks-Pacers Over

The Knicks are in trouble, partly because they are down almost 10 assists pg in this series from the regular season. Jalen Brunson in possession of the ball longer on each possessions is helping Tom Thibodeau slow down the blistering Indiana the pace somewhat, but it’s at the expense of the offense becoming too predictable with one isolation and pick-and-roll after another. Moreover, Thibodeau’s decision to take Karl-Anthony Towns out of the game (due mostly to defense) in the 4th Q on Friday might have justified, considering KAT’s -20 +/- in just 27 minutes, but overall, it hurt the Knicks, taking take their 1-B scoring option off of the floor when buckets were sorely needed to keep pace with a rampant Indiana. Play Pacers

Karl-Anthony Towns dominated Game 1, posting 35 points and 12 rebounds across 39 minutes. However, he played just 28 minutes in Game 2. That was his fewest minutes in any playoff game for the Knicks. Still, he finished with 20 points and seven rebounds. In the playoffs, he has averaged 20.9 points and 11.1 rebounds. I expect him to play more than 30 minutes in Game 3 as the Knicks try to finally get a win in the series, so I like this over.

Andrew Nembhard followed up his 15 points in Game 1 by scoring 12 points in Game 2. He has logged at least 35 minutes in both games against the Knicks, boosting his average to 33 minutes per game in the playoffs. Across 12 playoff games, he has scored at least 12 points nine times. With the expectation that he plays upwards of 35 minutes again, I like his chances to hit this over.

Getting the Pacers at -2 at home is excellent value, especially considering they are the younger, deeper, more athletic, and healthier team—and they're better coached. A -2 line implies that New York would be favored on a neutral court, which doesn't align with either recent performance or underlying metrics. These teams have played each other frequently over the past 12 months, and there's little to suggest the Knicks are as good and are certainly not better. Some bettors may expect a "Cleveland-style" bounce-back from New York (Indiana's Game 3 loss after going up 2-0 in that series). The Pacers are fully aware of that letdown and should come out with the same urgency they showed in their dominant Game 4 win over the Cavaliers.

Pacers averaging 119/G in playoffs and they have a way of having someone different go off every night. So balanced and so deep and Knicks are not a super special defensive team. Pacers have most efficient offense in playoffs and lead NBA in ass/TO ratio, TS% and EFG% in postseason. Have scored 114+ in 10 of 12 playoff games. Will be able to push pace more at home and get more shots off. Tend to play over games vs NYK.