We easily got the over 24.5 PRA in Game 1 but this is a good time to sell high on Chet Holmgren. The line has gone up by 16% in 2 games. We project him for just under 26 PRA in 31 minutes. He is due to cool off from three (11-22 in the series). The Thunder will likely blow out Memphis and let Chet sit for most of the 2nd half. We project him for 31 minutes but could easily imagine him getting 16 PRA in 16 first half minutes. Then up 20+ he could end up playing 22 minutes and finishing with 20 PRA. The Under is 13-1 when he plays 21-28 minutes and 12-6 when the Thunder are double digit favorites.

It's rare the OKC coaching staff has teachable moments, but their horrible first half in Game 3 is one. Don't expect a repeat. The Thunders' hustle is a dominant trait and they go for the throat when they smell blood. They want to end this in 4 and Grizz are shaken emotionally after blowing 29-point lead at home. Even if Ja Morant plays, I see a letdown early. OKC led NBA in 1st half road net rating - 13.6 (next highest was BOS 11,1). OKC 1st in TS%, 4th in asst/TO ratio, 1st in points (61.4), 3rd in 3-pointers (38.6 %) on road in 1st half this season. Game 1 OKC led 68-36 at half. Game 2 they led 70-52.