Dallas is without all of their rim protectors and you might think it shows up vs opposing bigs, but it does not. They are stout defending centers but get destroyed by guards and penetrating guards around the basket. Green is averaging 23/G vs DAL this season, had his stroke going Wed and DAL allowing 71 PPG to guards over last 15 G (24th), shooting 49% from floor (29th). 36 of those 71/G are coming from guards in the paint and Green leads Rockets guards with 5 attempts per game within 5 feet of the hoop. Mavs are short on players, which shows up big on D, and short on size. Fred VanVleet is still rounding into from an injury absence; not hunting layups much lately.

We're getting a sizable discount on this scoring line for Fred VanVleet who missed around 10 days due to an ankle strain. This will be VanVleet's second game back and he logged 28 minutes in his return. I expect that number to eclipse 30 tonight and there is likely to be some additional shots available as Amen Thompson who is the teams third leading scorer is out.The Mavs meanwhile have surrendered at least 122 points in seven consecutive games and have been getting torched. VanVleet could go over this line in a half if he is aggressive.