Orlando's Franz Wagner is expected to be limited to about 24 minutes in his return after missing 20 games with an oblique injury. So this number feels pretty high -- it's equivalent to 35 points over 48 minutes. I'm guessing Franz is in there for perhaps four six-minute bursts in each quarter. Our model has him at 14.4 points.

The Magic cannot get it together and the Paolo bump I expected has not materialized. They are 2-5 in last 7 games and, after years of cashing like crazy at home, are just 2-6 ATS In last 8 at home. They are 0-4 ATS last 4 times favored by 3 or more. Blazers are playing solid ball lately. They're covered 5 straight on road, are 12-9-1 ATS as a road dog and 6-3 ATS vs the Eastern Conference. They are live for me to win this game.