Seems like a tricky spot for the Mavs in the second of a B2B off their highly-charged win in Phoenix on Friday that included a bit of a skirmish -- and got forwards PJ Washington and Naji Marshall suspended for tonight. And the Mavs already were without Luka Doncic and Dereck Lively. Perhaps I have Blazers flu picking them for a second time this week but they won for us last time out. Our model has Portland winning by 2.

Mavs smashed the Blazers once this season by 24 and beat them by 6 in the other meeting, plenty to get us over here. Another spot with a far superior team on the road in back to back but I see value in the spread. Mavs are 9-3 ATS vs bottom 10 teams in the NBA (2 of those losses came in 3 games vs Utah, a tough match-up for them), covering 7 of those games by multiple possessions. They are 5-2 ATS on the road since Thanksgiving and the Mavs are 4-1 ATS with no rest. Blazers fail to cover in 7 of last 10 and were blown out twice in the last week. They have struggled to cover vs better teams in NBA.