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Sun, May 1912:00 am UTCAmerican Airlines Center
Track OnCBS Sports
Oklahoma City
Thunder
OKC
Last 5 ATS
W/L63-29
ATS53-38
O/U48-41-3
FINAL SCORE
116
-
117
Dallas
Mavericks
DAL
Last 5 ATS
W/L63-41
ATS59-43
O/U45-56-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER
Last 5 ATS
63-29
Win /Loss
63-41
53-38
Spread
59-43
48-41-3
Over / Under
45-56-1
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
OVER/UNDER

Simulation Picks

SPREAD
OKC @ DAL
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MONEYLINE
OKC @ DAL
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OVER / UNDER
OKC @ DAL
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25%
PUBLIC
75%
MONEY
13%
PUBLIC
87%
MONEY
Over85%
PUBLIC
Under15%
Over
MONEY
Under

Understanding Public and Money

Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

Expert Picks

Point SpreadOklahoma City +4 -110
WIN
Unit1.0
+693
18-10-1 in Last 29 NBA ATS Picks
+923
28-17-2 in Last 47 DAL ATS Picks
Zack's Analysis:

The Oklahoma City Thunder should already be eliminated with as poor as they have played offensively against the Dallas Mavericks. Yet, they found a way in game four with a late rally at Dallas, and all it takes is that one game for a team to wake up in the postseason. Take the Thunder to finally look a bit more fluid offensively for the first time since game one.

Pick Made: May 18, 4:42 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Money LineDallas -189
WIN
Unit1.0
+321
32-25 in Last 57 NBA Picks
+100
3-2 in Last 5 OKC ML Picks
Tim's Analysis:

Luka Doncic is getting stronger as this series goes on. He is also getting help outside of Kyrie Irving from PJ Washington (19 ppg in this series) and Derrick Jones (11 ppg in this series). Mavs roll at home.

Pick Made: May 18, 3:53 pm UTC on WilliamHillNewJersey
Point SpreadDallas -3.5 -110
LOSS
Unit1.0
+3578
197-147-3 in Last 347 NBA Picks
+2461
108-76-2 in Last 186 NBA ATS Picks
+95
2-1 in Last 3 OKC ATS Picks
Bruce's Analysis:

As this series has progressed, the Mavs have gradually figured out how to slow the Thunder, whose offense at times seems reduced to SGA going solo and trying to keep OKC in the game by himself. Indeed, save for late in Monday's Game 4, Dallas might have already wrapped up this series. Defense has been surprisingly good for the Mavs, who are also very happy to play the sort of halfcourt game that suits Luka Doncic and his sore legs quite well in mid-May. The emergence of PJ Washington and Derrick Lively as new threats have allowed Jason Kidd's offense to function even with lower usage rates by Luka & Kyrie, and signals this series might be ready to end tonight. Play Mavs

Pick Made: May 18, 8:23 am UTC on Bet365NewJersey
Point SpreadDallas -3.5 -125
LOSS
Unit1.0
+674
45-35 in Last 80 NBA ATS Picks
+234
10-7 in Last 17 OKC ATS Picks
Jason's Analysis:

Luka is on a mission and even with Kyrie still too much of a facilitator/passenger and Mavs are clearly the superior team. If hey made a few foul shots in Game 4 series already over. I don't see this experienced backcourt blow a chance to close it out at home. SGA can have all the lay-ups he wants; OKC's starting lineup change kinda backfired, Mavs rotating bigs (Lively and Gafford) are a problem. Jalen Williams 41% from field in series; Dort 31%,, Giddy -5. OKC still missing one piece to win a series like this and losses at home will come back to bite them here. When Mavs beat you at home by 12 with Luka and Kyrie only totaling 43, you're in trouble.

Pick Made: May 16, 2:17 pm UTC on DraftKings

Best Prop Picks

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Best prop picks are generated from a combination of Sportsline's projection, analysis of the opposing team, and the bets value based on the current odds.

Team Injuries

Oklahoma City Thunder
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025
Avatar
PG
Nikola Topic
KneeOfs
Dallas Mavericks
Wednesday, Apr 23, 2025
Avatar
SF
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
WristOut
Saturday, Apr 19, 2025
Avatar
PG
Kyrie Irving
KneeOut

Season Splits

All Games
ALL
All Games
56%
51-39-1
55-38
59%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
50%
22-22-1
24-22
52%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
54%
12-10-1
38-21
64%
When Spread was +2 to +5
SPREAD
When Spread was -5 to -2
71%
10-4-1
16-6
72%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
50%
8-8-1
18-15
54%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
60%
28-18-1
27-22
55%
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
55%
48-39-1
54-37
59%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
56%
43-33-1
44-35
55%
vs DAL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs OKC
44%
4-5
5-4
55%
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