I'll be honest I'm stunned we're seeing a line this low and at this price. Malik Beasley's scoring will absolutely be necessary in the absence of Giannis. I expect him to shoot high volume from beyond the arc, where he is shooting 41% this season, and against the Pacers specifically. Beasley is averaging just over 11 points this season and 9 against Indiana. I see no reason he will not see an increase in production tonight. The Sportsline model makes the number 14.

Milwaukee is 31-11 at home this season. However, they’re without Giannis and in the five times they’ve faced the Pacers during the regular season, their defense has allowed 122 points, or more, in each game. Milwaukee is not locked in defensively like they’ve been in years past. The Pacers are going to push the pace from start to finish and have scored 117 points, or more, in 55 games this season while the Bucks have allowed 117 points, or more, in 46 regular season games.

The Bucks don't have Giannis but it doesn't matter because the Pacers beat them four of five meetings during the regular season. They just had too much for the Bucks. Over went three and two in the five meetings. The Pacers went six and two in the last eight of the season including beating OKC and Miami. The Bucks have lost six of their last eight games and are fading fast. The Pacers steal game one.

Tyrese Haliburton didn’t have a great second half of the season. However, he showed signs of turning things around, including shooting 46.7% from the field and 38.8% from behind the arc over his last 12 games. He dominated the Bucks this season, averaging 27.0 points against them over five games. He scored at least 22 points in each of those matchups. With plenty of minutes and shot attempts coming his way as the Pacers try to steal a game on the road, look for Haliburton to reach this over.

Tyrese Haliburton has sailed over this number in all five games against the Milwaukee Bucks this season, scoring 29, 27, 22, 26, and 31 points, respectively. Even with Giannis in the lineup, he managed to achieve this feat, but now that Giannis is listed as doubtful, there will be less rim protection. It's reasonable to expect another big scoring output from Haliburton in the first postseason game of his career.

The Pacers dynamo has been a particular problem for the Bucks this season and he just might take this series over. First of all, I expect a lot of points and shots in what were very high scoring games. He shot 53.2% vs MIL from the field, averaged 27/G and his 11 asst/G were third most vs the Bucks this season of any player to face them at least twice. And now there is no Giannis to dissuade him from driving the lane and Middleton has seemed less than 100% down the stretch as well. Pacers can get him into favorable matchups and when he dishes likely to be others with good looks at the goal. I'm playing this 35+ in other markets

The Pacers won four of five regular season meetings despite Giannis averaging 42.2 points and 13.0 rebounds in them. Of course, he's expected out at least Sunday and probably Game 2 as well. Damian Lillard hasn't practiced this week due to injury -- surely he will play but not at 100%. Just doesn't seem like the Bucks' year.

All 3 games these two played soared over their total and produced 142-130, 122-113, 128-119, 140-126 and 126-123 results. Pacers forced MIL to play at their pace even with Giannis. Since the ASG MIL is 17th in defensive rating and IND is 18th. Giannis is out and other key Bucks are ailing. IND went over in 5 straight and 6 of 7 to end season with totals of 272, 249, 263, 232, 238, 226, 244. I get that D is supposed to tighten up in the playoffs, but that's not the Pacers thing and the Bucks are seriously compromised (Middleton didn't look right to me down the stretch). I bet it's bombs away from Dame Lillard now on offense in a run-and-gun series.