There are some rare NBA players that once they playoffs arrive, they are capable of raising their level of play, Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray would be good examples of players that fit into this category. The flip side of this example, and far less rare, are players who perform significantly worse in the postseason compared to the regular season. Some modern examples would be Julius Randle and James Harden who we are fading today. Hardens PRA line is higher as a result of Kawhi being inactive, however Harden averages almost identical production with Kawhi (approx. 30.0 PRA) than without Kawhi (approx. 31.1 PRA).

Kawhi Leonard has been officially ruled out, so good luck to the Clippers stopping Luka Doncic. Paul George can't play all 48 minutes.

Without Kawhi Leonard, the Clippers will need more from Russell Westbrook. I like backing the 35-year-old in the series opener because he's had plenty of rest. Westbrook cleared this prop total in all three meetings with Dallas this season, averaging 23 combined points, rebounds and assists.

The big news for Game 1 is that Kawhi Leonard (knee) is listed as questionable. After getting an injection in his knee Thursday, he might actually be closer to doubtful. The Clippers went 7-7 across the 14 games that he missed during the regular season. The Mavericks had a terrific finish to the regular season, going 16-4 over their final 20 games. Two of those losses came in their final two games when they rested players. They were 25-16 on the road this season, and with Leonard possibly not playing, I like their chances to begin this series with a victory.

About a month ago on my show (6-7pm est daily) Alex S. gave me the two sweetest words in prop betting: Daniel Gafford. He is a defensive stalwart who has held the opposing center under his points total EIGHTEEN STRAIGHT TIMES. This correlates to the fact the Mavs were 16-2 down the stretch. Play this

Kawhi's health has to be a concern for the Clippers and Zubacs can't bang with Gafford and the Mavs rebounding improved dramatically down the stretch once Jason Kidd let Gafford run with the ones regularly. He's super athletic and will win above the rim in this match-up. I am playing him to get a double-double in Game 1 as well. Has yet to face the Clippers this season and will make his presence felt early

The Mavs backcourt will be a problem for the Clippers and Kyrie can filet them in a number of ways. His playoff pedigree speaks for itself, the Clippers defensive woes are very real (22nd in defensive rating since the ASG), and he can feast here in a multitude of ways. Kyrie averaged 26.5 points, 6 boards and 3 assists vs LAC this season and that was while playing just 30,2 min/G. If these games are even remotely close - and some of them might not be - he is going to be playing closer to 40 mins, especially Game 1 when he just had almost a full week off. I expect him to establish himself early, look for his shot and get to the line.

Most books have the Mavs favored. I grabbed this with Dallas as a dog. The Mavs are 16-2 in last 18 with Luka and they now play GREAT D up front.

The Mavs were arguably the NBA's top team since the ASG and they were a covering machine until they rested starters final 2 game (16-2 ATS in last 18 "real" games). Yeah the Clippers won 2 of 3 vs them, which is why this line is so generous but DAL in series rest is a problem. Since Feb 1 DAL 5th in NBA in +/- while LAC 18th. More to point, Clip Joint can't defend (a problem that was particularly acute at home); DAL 7th in D rating since 2/1 and LAC 23rd. Since the ASG LAC 6-12 at home with the 3rd-worst D raring in NBA (only TOR and UTA worse). Mavs intent to make this a quick series and rest up again.