I expect a typical torrid first half from Boston, especially after a rare 4th quarter meltdown last time out. This is a team they just thrashed at home, and BOS been covering easy on the road. Backdoor potential is always real, however. Hence this play. BOS is +9 in 1st half on the road since ASG (tied for 1st in NBA). DET is -5.9 at home in 1st half since ASG (29th). Celtics led 59-46 at the half when they met a few days ago. Just led MIA by 13 at half Wed. Have been up big on everyone at half this month. This number doesn't scare me.

The Celtics staff needing a teaching moment and a let-up as they blow everyone out. They got it Wed when BOS nearly blew a 20-point 4th quarter lead to MIL w/o Giannis. But the Celtics just beat DET by 25 (15.5 spread) and they have covered 4 straight on the road, by 11.5, 10, 11, and 4.5. They backups just had success against the Pistons on a night when load management for BOS was real. Celtics +12.3 on road since ASG, 2nd in NBA. DET is -3.8 at home since ASG, 22nd in NBA. Celtics seem to enjoy blowing people out and still shooting late threes even when up very big. I'll bank on more of that here