We're getting a sizable discount on Lauri Markkanen's scoring prop as Lauri has been struggling a bit recently coupled with this being a tough matchup against the Heat. Miami struggles with perimeter oriented bigs who are capable of stretching the floor and you could make an argument that Lauri is the modern archetype of a stretch 3 or 4. Approximately half of Lauri's FGA's come from deep and while Miami has a good defense, it is predicated on defending the paint and as a result they are vulnerable from behind the three point line. Even in a "down" month Markkanen is still averaging 21 PPG on splits of 46/41/97.

Bam went for an easy 28 at Utah on a night when Miami's offense was far from full blast. Utah cant defend the interior at all and I see him and Jimmy Butler going off and getting ample second-chance points. He can bully a Jazz team that's looked weary lately on the road. He's scoring 20 a game and against this opponent I'm comfortable projecting him to score closer to 30 than 20.

The Jazz are getting pummeled inside and coming up soft against slashers and defending the paint. Butler leads Miami in two-point attempts and field goals within five feet of the basket. He averages 28 P+A over his last 10, but this is no average opponent at the Jazz give up assists like nothing with both Magic starting forwards picking up 6 the other night. Butler wasn't right in the meeting at Utah but I expect him to exploit this brutal defense in several different facets Saturday in his first home game in weeks.

Check the Tyler Herro write up for the breakdown on the Jazz assists woes. And Miami likes to share the ball. Bam averages 4 AST/G over his last 10 and he has gone over this total in 10 of his last 15 at home. He had 3 vs the Jazz at Utah on a night when Miami stopped scoring after 3 qtrs. That won't happen here with Jazz defense broken.

We faded Utah +5 immediately and it reached 6.5 ... and they lost by 8 at Orlando Thurs. They are 0-5 ATS last 5 on road and 2-6 last 8 road and 4-9 SU last 13 on road; 8 of those losses are by 7 + and 6 are by 14+. They failed to cover their last 6 road losses by: 3, 25, 9, 12, 34, 12, 22.5. Books still can't peg them. Miami hasn't been home since Feb. 11 and they'll be pumped. Heat are 4-1 ATS Last 5 a7 home and 9-3 ATS last 12 overall. They covered at home by 4, 4, 22.5 and 6.5. No real sweats. Jazz allow 6th most points on road, 4th most 3s, 28th in road +/-