Caleb Martin has been compensating for the absence of Bam. Just two days ago, he put up nine rebounds against Charlotte. Mark Williams is out again for Charlotte, so there are only so many options to be crashing the boards here. Since Adebayo has been out, Martin is averaging well over 30 minutes, look for plenty of opportunities to hit this number.

This is the right game script for Nick Richards. In 15 games with 25+ minutes he averaged 11.1 points and 10.6 rebounds (21.7). He's been getting these minutes with Mark Williams out, who again is listed as questionable tonight. Miami is playing weaker defense at home this season, allowing +7% higher 2-point shooting at home. They are also getting out rebounded at home. Our model projects Richards for 21 points and rebounds.

Miami has won both meetings with Charlotte, but the wins came by an average of four points. The Heat won't have All-Star center Bam Adebayo (hip) again. They're 26th in defensive rating since Adebayo was injured in a 142-132 win over Indiana on Nov. 30. Even without LaMelo Ball, the Hornets have been very competitive over their last five, going 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS with one of the ATS losses coming by a half-point (123-117 loss to Minnesota as 5.5-point dogs). Look for the Heat to fall to 2-6 ATS as home favorites.