The Brooklyn Nets will be without Cameron Johnson, Nicolas Claxton, and Spencer Dinwiddie. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have been upgraded to probable for the 1-3 Miami Heat. My model has the Heat by 15. That big of a difference is worth 1.5 units.

The Heat waited most of the offseason to see if they could acquire Damian Lillard in a trade with the Trail Blazers. Since the process took so long to play out, they were left with few options to improve their roster after the deal never came to fruition. That means Tyler Herro will need to shoulder a significant amount of the scoring burden. He has obliged, averaging 25.3 points on 22.0 shot attempts per game. The Nets have given up 120.0 points per game, which should also help Herro’s case to reach the over.

The Nets are going to be shorthanded for this game. Cameron Johnson (calf), Nic Claxton (ankle) and Spencer Dinwiddie (ankle) are all out, while Dennis Smith Jr. (hip) is questionable. Fewer players available means more opportunities for Thomas. He is never one to shy away from jacking up shots, so the Nets having injury issues has left him with a 32.2 percent usage rate this season. That has resulted in him scoring at least 30 points in all three games. We only need 25 here to hit the over, so I can’t resist.

There's always a risk the Heat could rule out some key guys tomorrow but the Nets apparently will be without Spencer Dinwiddie and backup guard Dennis Smith Jr. on top of previously ruled out Cam Johnson and Nic Claxton on Wednesday. Miami has lost three straight and played without Bam Adebayo on Monday, but those were all away and Bam should return Wednesday. Half unit.