Ideally Malcolm Brogdon wouldn't have been ruled out when making this play, but he basically was a non-factor the past two games, both Boston wins, regardless. Now it may be Jerry Sichting .... err Payton Pritchard time! Really, the Celtics simply remembered how to make three-pointers of late and the Heat remembered that they weren't all-world from deep during the regular season like they were the first three games of this series. Boston has seemed to play its best basketball in elimination games.

The sharp money appears to be on Boston, but I think it's partly a result of some recency bias and roster worship. Bottom line is that the Heat are at home getting points and they've been the better team in this series. I think we're more likely to see the Celtics shrink in this spot than step up. It also appears that Gabe Vincent will be back in action which certainly helps on both ends of the floor.

I'm on the Celtics again tonight as I have them winning 61 percent of simulations meaning this line should be closer to -156. The Celtics are still the best team in the NBA in terms of RIM and 3 Rate (per ShotQuality) and that is what I'm looking to bet on most here as they consistently get quality shots. It's never fun fading a motivated Jimmy Butler, but I don't think he has enough help at this point in the series outside of a 6+ made threes game from Duncan Robinson.

The Boston Celtics quickly have shifted the thoughts on the possibility of being the first team ever to erase a 3-0 series deficit. They have supreme confidence once again and the experience of so many trips to the Eastern Conference Finals. They may not jump out on the Miami Heat as quickly as in game five but their surge will happen. Take Boston to push this series to seven games and cover the number.

This total has dropped by 4.5 points from Game 5. The two teams combined to score 207 points, which was the lowest total of the series. Jimmy Butler only scored 14 points for the Heat and Gabe Vincent (ankle) didn’t play. Butler should have a better performance on his home floor and Vincent is expected to play, so I’ll take advantage of this reduced total and take the over.

Caleb Martin has become one of the top running mates for Jimmy Butler in this series. He has scored at least 14 points in all five games, averaging 17.6 points and 2.8 three-pointers along the way. The Heat need his defensive versatility, which helped him play at least 30 minutes in each game. His role won’t change any for this crucial Game 6, so I expect him to receive enough shot attempts to reach the over.

Why lay points in a must-win spot for Boston? Jimmy Butler finally came back to earth with 14 points last game, and that's now back to back games the Heat have failed to break 100 points. The wheels are off in Miami! Boston wins tonight.

Al Horford looks to have found his form again. Horford averaged 12.8 points and assists in the regular season and averaged 11.1 through the first 10 games of the playoffs. Then his shot disappeared. From Game 5 of the Philly series through Game 3 against Miami, Horford shot 27% and averaged only 4.2 points per game. He's rebounded in the last two games, and I anticipate we'll see that continue Saturday. Also, he's finished with at least 10 points and assists in 24 of 36 road games this year, including five of the eight this postseason.

This is a giant number for Jayson Tatum who is averaged a combined 13.4 rebounds & assists in the regular season. Tatum has increased his RA to 15.7 in the postseason but has still failed to eclipse this number in 12/18 (66%) playoff games and 56 of 74 (75%) regular season appearances. Tatum has seen his usage increase however this line is still inflated and his assist numbers are due for some regression. Malcolm Brogdon is hurt and Boston is opting to deploy some bigger lineups which could impact his rebounding opportunities as well.

Jimmy Butler has guaranteed a victory for the Miami Heat in game 6. This may be the Heat's best chance as the series pivots to Boston for game 7 in the event Miami are unable to take of business. Butler is coming off arguably his worst playoff game this season where he finished with only 14 points on 5-10 shooting. Butler is averaging 30 PPG at home in the playoffs. The Heat have been held under 100 points in two consecutive games and Miami is struggling to generate offense. This feels like a spot where Butler puts the team on his back.