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    Sun, May 2812:30 am UTCKaseya Center
    Track OnCBS Sports
    Boston
    Celtics
    BOS
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L68-34
    ATS55-46
    O/U52-48-2
    FINAL SCORE
    104
    -
    103
    Miami
    Heat
    MIA
    Last 5 ATS
    W/L58-49
    ATS46-58
    O/U51-54-2
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER
    Last 5 ATS
    68-34
    Win /Loss
    58-49
    55-46
    Spread
    46-58
    52-48-2
    Over / Under
    51-54-2
    Key Injuries
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    PG
    Avatar
    SG
    Key Injuries
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    SG
    Avatar
    SG
    SPREAD
    MONEYLINE
    OVER/UNDER

    Simulation Picks

    SPREAD
    BOS @ MIA
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    MONEYLINE
    BOS @ MIA
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    OVER / UNDER
    BOS @ MIA
    Subscribers Only

    Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks

    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    0%
    PUBLIC
    0%
    MONEY
    Over0%
    PUBLIC
    Under0%
    Over
    MONEY
    Under

    Understanding

    Public and Money

    Read More

    Think of 'Public' as the percentage of people betting on each side and 'Money' as how much money is being bet. When there's a big difference between the 'Public' and 'Money' data, it usually means that the more serious bettors (referred to as 'Sharp Money') are favoring a particular side.

    Expert Picks

    Money LineBoston -130
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1480.25
    60-27 in Last 87 NBA ML Picks
    +1386
    43-20 in Last 63 BOS ML Picks
    Matt's Analysis:

    Ideally Malcolm Brogdon wouldn't have been ruled out when making this play, but he basically was a non-factor the past two games, both Boston wins, regardless. Now it may be Jerry Sichting .... err Payton Pritchard time! Really, the Celtics simply remembered how to make three-pointers of late and the Heat remembered that they weren't all-world from deep during the regular season like they were the first three games of this series. Boston has seemed to play its best basketball in elimination games.

    Pick Made: May 27, 11:48 pm UTC
    Point SpreadMiami +2.5 -110
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +390
    5-1 in Last 6 NBA ATS Picks
    +90
    2-1 in Last 3 MIA ATS Picks
    Sia's Analysis:

    The sharp money appears to be on Boston, but I think it's partly a result of some recency bias and roster worship. Bottom line is that the Heat are at home getting points and they've been the better team in this series. I think we're more likely to see the Celtics shrink in this spot than step up. It also appears that Gabe Vincent will be back in action which certainly helps on both ends of the floor.

    Pick Made: May 27, 10:00 pm UTC
    Money LineBoston -135
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +465
    7-2-1 in Last 10 NBA Picks
    +470
    3-0 in Last 3 BOS ML Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    I'm on the Celtics again tonight as I have them winning 61 percent of simulations meaning this line should be closer to -156. The Celtics are still the best team in the NBA in terms of RIM and 3 Rate (per ShotQuality) and that is what I'm looking to bet on most here as they consistently get quality shots. It's never fun fading a motivated Jimmy Butler, but I don't think he has enough help at this point in the series outside of a 6+ made threes game from Duncan Robinson.

    Pick Made: May 27, 8:14 pm UTC
    Point SpreadBoston -2.5 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +92
    2-1 in Last 3 NBA Picks
    +886
    32-21-1 in Last 54 BOS ATS Picks
    Zack's Analysis:

    The Boston Celtics quickly have shifted the thoughts on the possibility of being the first team ever to erase a 3-0 series deficit. They have supreme confidence once again and the experience of so many trips to the Eastern Conference Finals. They may not jump out on the Miami Heat as quickly as in game five but their surge will happen. Take Boston to push this series to seven games and cover the number.

    Pick Made: May 27, 6:51 pm UTC
    Over / UnderOver 210.5 -110
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1249
    16-3 in Last 19 NBA Picks
    +80
    3-2 in Last 5 NBA O/U Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    This total has dropped by 4.5 points from Game 5. The two teams combined to score 207 points, which was the lowest total of the series. Jimmy Butler only scored 14 points for the Heat and Gabe Vincent (ankle) didn’t play. Butler should have a better performance on his home floor and Vincent is expected to play, so I’ll take advantage of this reduced total and take the over.

    Pick Made: May 27, 5:55 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsCaleb Martin Over 12.5 Total Points -129
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +1245
    28-13 in Last 41 NBA Player Props Picks
    Mike's Analysis:

    Caleb Martin has become one of the top running mates for Jimmy Butler in this series. He has scored at least 14 points in all five games, averaging 17.6 points and 2.8 three-pointers along the way. The Heat need his defensive versatility, which helped him play at least 30 minutes in each game. His role won’t change any for this crucial Game 6, so I expect him to receive enough shot attempts to reach the over.

    Pick Made: May 27, 5:51 pm UTC
    Money LineBoston -145
    WIN
    Unit1.0
    +685
    10-3 in Last 13 NBA Picks
    Tim's Analysis:

    Why lay points in a must-win spot for Boston? Jimmy Butler finally came back to earth with 14 points last game, and that's now back to back games the Heat have failed to break 100 points. The wheels are off in Miami! Boston wins tonight.

    Pick Made: May 27, 4:27 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Points + AssistsAl Horford Over 9.5 Total Points + Assists -121
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +273
    20-14 in Last 34 NBA Player Props Picks
    Tom's Analysis:

    Al Horford looks to have found his form again. Horford averaged 12.8 points and assists in the regular season and averaged 11.1 through the first 10 games of the playoffs. Then his shot disappeared. From Game 5 of the Philly series through Game 3 against Miami, Horford shot 27% and averaged only 4.2 points per game. He's rebounded in the last two games, and I anticipate we'll see that continue Saturday. Also, he's finished with at least 10 points and assists in 24 of 36 road games this year, including five of the eight this postseason.

    Pick Made: May 27, 4:25 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total Rebounds + AssistsJayson Tatum Under 16.5 Total Rebounds + Assists -129
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    This is a giant number for Jayson Tatum who is averaged a combined 13.4 rebounds & assists in the regular season. Tatum has increased his RA to 15.7 in the postseason but has still failed to eclipse this number in 12/18 (66%) playoff games and 56 of 74 (75%) regular season appearances. Tatum has seen his usage increase however this line is still inflated and his assist numbers are due for some regression. Malcolm Brogdon is hurt and Boston is opting to deploy some bigger lineups which could impact his rebounding opportunities as well.

    Pick Made: May 27, 1:37 pm UTC
    Avatar
    Total PointsJimmy Butler Over 28.5 Total Points -133
    LOSS
    Unit1.0
    +1368.5
    70-45 in Last 115 NBA Player Props Picks
    Alex's Analysis:

    Jimmy Butler has guaranteed a victory for the Miami Heat in game 6. This may be the Heat's best chance as the series pivots to Boston for game 7 in the event Miami are unable to take of business. Butler is coming off arguably his worst playoff game this season where he finished with only 14 points on 5-10 shooting. Butler is averaging 30 PPG at home in the playoffs. The Heat have been held under 100 points in two consecutive games and Miami is struggling to generate offense. This feels like a spot where Butler puts the team on his back.

    Pick Made: May 27, 1:27 pm UTC

    Team Injuries

    Boston Celtics
    Sunday, Apr 14, 2024
    Avatar
    PG
    Jrue Holiday
    KneeQuestionable
    Avatar
    SG
    Derrick White
    AnkleQuestionable
    Miami Heat
    Tuesday, Apr 16, 2024
    Avatar
    SG
    Terry Rozier
    NeckOut
    Sunday, Apr 14, 2024
    Avatar
    SG
    Duncan Robinson
    BackQuestionable
    Tuesday, Mar 05, 2024
    Avatar
    SG
    Josh Richardson
    ShoulderOut