The Grizzlies, still without Ja Morant (the league announced today he can return Monday) and Steven Adams, are have largely been garbage on the road in recent weeks even when Morant was around. Yes, the Grizzlies won Monday in Dallas, but the Mavs were without Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. If the full-strength Heat can't win this at home, well, I don't know what to say other than they deserve to have to compete in the play-in tournament. Miami is shooting 83.2 percent from the free throw line this season, currently the highest single-season percentage in team history. That certainly may be relevant tonight.

The Grizzlies are shorthanded up front because of injuries, leaving more opportunities for Aldama to contribute. He has done just that on the boards, hauling in at least five rebounds in each of the last four games. He actually started the last time these teams played each other, hauling in 10 rebounds across 34 minutes. Even with him likely to play between 20 and 25 minutes in their rematch, the over is still the way to go.