I get why this total is astronomical as both meetings this season have been very high scoring, but I have to go under on principle. I mean, both teams could reach 120 points and this still can land under. The Dubs managed only 105 points Sunday in Steph Curry's return in LA. He might remain on a bit of a minutes restriction.

Oklahoma City trails Golden State by a fair amount in the standings, but my model has the Thunder covering the spread in an impressive 68% of its simulations. In fact, OKC's winning outright in 56% of the simulations, but the model isn't quite as confident on that front. Regardless, taking OKC against the spread here provides excellent value. Look for the Thunder to take care of business against the Warriors on their home court.