One of the biggest head-scratchers this season is how poor the Mavericks have been ATS. Sooner or later, the payoff for bettors will reverse in a big way, as the Mavericks are still a .500 team at 14-14. On Friday, they are getting a cheaper number based on Portland’s stout play since Damian Lillard has returned. Expect a big effort as the Mavericks have lost three of four and are coming off their worst home loss of the season.

Damian Lillard has played each of the last five games for the Trail Blazers. During that span, they went 4-1 with three of those victories coming by at least 16 points. Their only loss came by just one point to the Nuggets. The Mavericks will be missing two key rotation players for this game in Josh Green (elbow) and Maxi Kleber (hamstring). Add in the Mavericks having a 4-9-2 record against the spread at home and I’ll roll with the Trail Blazers to cover.