I realize the Spurs are coming off a double-overtime game at Washington, which they won. But the Heat also played on Friday night, so neither team has a back-to-back advantage. The main reason I'm taking San Antonio to cover is because Miami has a huge game on Monday against Chicago, which is tied with the Heat for the best record in the Eastern Conference. I would not be shocked to see Miami look ahead to -- or try to save some energy for -- Monday night. My model says the Spurs cover 67 percent of the time and win by one, so you're getting strong value at this number.